The Four Stages of Variability: Panarchy of Physical Movement

EightOS is a practice that promotes movement variability to modulate adaptivity, resilience, and confluence. The basic tenet of our philosophy, based on multiple peer-reviewed studies and practical experience, is that healthy, adaptive, “natural” movement dynamics has fractal properties. At the same time, any ecological system always goes through multiple stages of development — what is well-represented through the framework of panarchy. A period of growth is followed by saturation, then release, and finally — reorganization, after which a new growth cycle begins.

How do we integrate these principles into the individual and collective movement dynamics?

Each of these stages can be represented with different types of variability. The fractal, adaptive, variability state can be associated with the stage of release. In the framework of panarchy, this is where the system is rewiring itself, finding new connections, breaking the old ones. It is a stage of optimization and integration, open to external perturbations and, yet, maintaining its core. Operating at multiple scales, ready to respond both to the smallest changes and dramatic shifts. A critical, sensitive, metastable state.

While we choose to optimize for the fractal dynamics, we also give utmost importance to other types of variability. These variability types can be expressed mathematically through the alpha-component — a measurement of connection between long-term effects and small-scale perturbations. This approach to measuring variability is used in cardiology for evaluating the quality of HRV (heart-rate variability). Alpha component is a convenient way to describe change because it allows us to see whether this change is:

• uniform (with a highly pronounced rhythm)
• regular (predictable, deviating around a mean value)
• fractal (critical state with no average value and unpredictable changes)
• complex (sudden shifts or overly sensitive to external trends)

The four different types of variability are depicted in the schema below:

In this article, we describe each state of variability in detail and establish a link with an appropriate stage in Panarchy. Using the framework of Panarchy, we establish the notion of ecological variability, which can be applied to the body and physical movement, but also to cognition and and social networks.

 

Stage 1: Uniform Variability — “Growth” in Panarchy

The first stage, at the bottom-left of the quadrant, is associated with regeneration, growth, and development. This is where the system is starting to gain more potential energy; the number of relations is low; it is a stage of recovery and regeneration; the beginning of something new.

The type of variability associated with this state is a uniform, repetitive state. The change has a highly pronounced rhythm or is completely random. If it is random, it is predictable, because it oscillates around a certain average value and over a period of time we can claim an almost precise probability for each possible value (e.g. 50/50 chance of heads or tails when throwing a coin).

In the case of a human heart (measured via HRV), this is where it’s in the state of recovery. In the case of the body, it is a state of shaking, rhythmical breathing, convulsions, repetitive action — states that are associated with recovery, regeneration, creation of something new.

The alpha component in such a state is approximately between 0.3 and 0.6. This means that the system is focused on itself (zoomed in), responding to only the short-term, immediate perturbations, shifting from the state of exploration to the state of focus, gradually zooming out, generating the dots and only starting to make connections between them.

Solidifying the substance, making something concrete for the first time. Increasing the frequency, building up tension.

 

 

Stage 2: Regular Variability — “Saturation” in Panarchy

The alpha component in such a state is approximately between 0.6 and 0.9. Change is more variable and less rhythmical, but it still oscillates around an average value. We can still predict where we are and where we’re going to be.

At this stage, change has more variability. It is a process of shifting from growth to solidification and saturation. The system gets more rigid, operates at a large scale, becomes extroverted, more focused. The focus is on making connections, forming a solid entity.

This is where we are most of the time, as we need to operate in a certain environment, so our movement and change are predictable, but they do have variations as we have to be sensitive to perturbations and also respond to a certain drive towards growth.

At a certain point, it gets harder and harder to develop further (refer to Pareto’s 80/20 principle — after getting 80% of results with 20% of effort, it is very hard to give 80% more energy for only 20% of results), so every extra effort brings fewer and fewer results. This is also a point when something can be made truly exceptional. Because you can only offer this extra effort if you truly love something, or believe in it, or pressed by a very basic need.

 

In the case of HRV, it is the most typical state that has elements of recovery but also of adaptivity. The distances between the heartbeats indicate that it’s sensitive to both sympathetic and parasympathetic systems, but with a slight bias towards short-term perturbations.

In the case of movement, it’s going about the day in a predictable manner without big oscillations.

 

Stage 3: Fractal Variability — “Release” in Panarchy

Fractal variability is a type of change that is similar across different time scales. No matter how short or how long you observe the change, you will see a similar pattern. It will not have an average value, but there will be a pattern emerging that will indicate that both short-term and long-term changes follow the same logic. Usually, it means seeing a lot of small perturbations and a few occasional big ones.

Such variability indicates a highly adaptive state. For HRV, it means the heart is sensitive to both sympathetic and parasympathetic systems, so it’s in a highly adaptive and sensitive state. For body movement, fractal variability means that we are responsive to both very small movements and big perturbations from the outside.

In the framework of panarchy, the fractal state is associated with the quadrant at the bottom right (4 to 5, 5 to 6). It is coming from a highly focused state towards a more exploratory mode. Oscillating between the mid-scale (local overview) and small-scale (zooming in) attention. Disrupting existing connections, reconfiguring, bridging the gaps, finding new relations, going beyond the periphery, and exploring what’s missing.

The fractal change is associated with the alpha component around the value of 1 (0.9 to 1.1). As you can see, it looks very organic and natural, there is not a consistent average value, rather, we go through various modes of change. Characterized by constant shifts in movement speed and dynamics, having at least 3 different qualities of speed, combining small movements with bigger ones, fast changes with slow transitions, and occasional silence.

 

Stage 4: Complex Variability — “Reconfiguration” in Panarchy

The fourth type of change is characterized by shifts that lead to reorganization, reconfiguration, or complete disruption. Such change doesn’t have to be represented by sudden changes. It can also be elicited through continued gradual trend, which indicates that a system is too sensitive to external influence and is not “listening” to the smaller perturbations within.

In the context of HRV, such state is associated with tension. Alpha-component is above 1.1, it stops displaying fractal (self-similar) properties and is instead showing a strong trend. Staying in this state for a long time may be detrimental to the system, but it’s also an opportunity for a change.